Championship · England · Regular Season - 37

Stoke City–Ipswich

3–3

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Stoke CityM. Smit (assist: T. Rigo)
44'Stoke CityBae Jun-Ho
49'IpswichE. Bocat (own goal)
64'IpswichJ. Taylor
82'IpswichG. Hirst (assist: C. Kipré)
90'Stoke CityM. Smit (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stoke City		Ipswich
15	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	9
4	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
282	Passes	425
193	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stoke City 0.95 · Ipswich 1.54. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Stoke City 15 · Ipswich 17; on target 6 and 5.
Ipswich kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

T. Kirk→

4.50

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Stoke City, 1.84 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (X2 — draw or Ipswich win).
These values were computed from 2,090 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stoke City to win17.2%

Draw24.0%

Ipswich to win58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Stoke City lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time45.9%

Ipswich lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Stoke City ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2090 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stoke City: at least 11Actual: 13
Ipswich: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Stoke City: at least 4Actual: 5
Ipswich: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stoke City score0.95

Attack: Stoke City score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score1.54

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.9%0–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.