Championship · England · Regular Season - 36

Charlton–Birmingham

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Valley, London

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'CharltonC. Kelman

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charlton		Birmingham
12	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
6	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
325	Passes	442
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charlton 1.11 · Birmingham 1.34. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Charlton 12 · Birmingham 7; on target 4 and 1.
Birmingham kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Allison→

3.98

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Charlton, 1.48 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (X2 — draw or Birmingham win).
These values were computed from 2,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charlton to win24.8%

Draw28.1%

Birmingham to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Charlton lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time44.4%

Birmingham lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Charlton ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charlton: at least 10Actual: 6
Birmingham: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Charlton: at least 4Actual: 3
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charlton score1.11

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.34

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–111.3%1–210.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.