Championship · England · Regular Season - 36

Derby–Sheffield Wednesday

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'DerbyB. Brereton (assist: R. Brewster)
17'Sheffield WednesdayJ. Yates (assist: J. Lowe)
45'DerbyM. Clarke (assist: J. Ward)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Sheffield Wednesday
13	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
408	Passes	322
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.87 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.78. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Derby 13 · Sheffield Wednesday 7; on target 4 and 3.
Derby kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

O. Langford→

3.48

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.4%: “Derby to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.31 for Derby, 0.66 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 92.3% (1X — Derby win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win75.4%

Draw16.9%

Sheffield Wednesday to win7.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Derby lead at half-time50.1%

Level at half-time39.7%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time10.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level89.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead49.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 10Actual: 7
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Derby: at least 5Actual: 6
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.87

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.78

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.1%1–011.1%3–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.