Championship · England · Regular Season - 36

Sheffield Utd–West Brom

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Sheffield UtdG. Campbell (own goal)
83'West BromG. Campbell

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		West Brom
13	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
557	Passes	304
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.54 · West Brom 0.99. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sheffield Utd 13 · West Brom 12; on target 2 and 3.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Whitestone→

3.27

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Sheffield Utd, 0.93 for West Brom.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win56.5%

Draw25.1%

West Brom to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time51.4%

Level at half-time38.5%

West Brom lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or West Brom ahead48.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 8
West Brom: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 5Actual: 5
West Brom: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.54

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals West Brom score0.99

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.3%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.