Championship · England · Regular Season - 36

Bristol City–Coventry

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'CoventryT. Sakamoto (assist: J. Dasilva)
43'CoventryJoel Latibeaudiere · red card
45'CoventryH. Wright
56'Bristol CityA. Randell · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Coventry
24	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
488	Passes	341
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.20 · Coventry 1.55. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Bristol City 24 · Coventry 10; on target 6 and 7.
Bristol City kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Donohue→

4.33

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “Bristol City to win” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Bristol City, 1.66 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win27.3%

Draw26.1%

Coventry to win46.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Bristol City lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time41.9%

Coventry lead at half-time35.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level64.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 9Actual: 9
Coventry: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Bristol City: at least 5Actual: 11
Coventry: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.20

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.55

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.3%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.