Championship · England · Regular Season - 35

Sheffield Wednesday–Southampton

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'SouthamptonJ. Bree
45'SouthamptonR. Manning
57'Sheffield WednesdayJ. Yates (assist: J. Lowe)
71'SouthamptonT. Harwood-Bellis (assist: K. Matsuki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Southampton
10	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
288	Passes	517
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 0.95 · Southampton 1.91. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 10 · Southampton 15; on target 3 and 6.
Southampton kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

G. Ward→

3.70

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.71 for Sheffield Wednesday, 2.41 for Southampton.
The highest double chance value is 92.1% (X2 — draw or Southampton win).
These values were computed from 2,066 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win7.9%

Draw16.4%

Southampton to win75.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time12.9%

Level at half-time41.2%

Southampton lead at half-time45.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level54.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Southampton ahead87.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2066 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 11
Southampton: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 4Actual: 5
Southampton: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.95

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Southampton score1.91

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.2%0–310.6%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.