Championship · England · Regular Season - 35

Leicester–Norwich

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'NorwichA. Ben Slimane (assist: S. Field)
78'NorwichA. Ahmed

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leicester		Norwich
10	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	8
4	Shots inside the box	9
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
3	Offsides	6
54%	Possession	46%
503	Passes	420
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leicester 1.45 · Norwich 1.33. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Leicester 10 · Norwich 12; on target 3 and 8.

Referee

A. Herczeg→

3.92

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Leicester to win”. Second comes “Norwich to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Leicester, 1.31 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,063 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leicester to win38.7%

Draw27.7%

Norwich to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Leicester win or draw66.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Norwich win61.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Leicester lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time40.2%

Norwich lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Leicester ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2063 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leicester: at least 10Actual: 8
Norwich: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Leicester: at least 5Actual: 5
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leicester score1.45

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.33

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.4%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2063 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 80 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.