Championship · England · Regular Season - 34

Sheffield Utd–Coventry

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 25 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Sheffield UtdH. Burrows (assist: G. Hamer)
52'CoventryH. Wright (assist: E. Mason-Clark)
57'CoventryJ. Rudoni (assist: E. Mason-Clark)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Coventry
22	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
508	Passes	288
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.45 · Coventry 1.36. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sheffield Utd 22 · Coventry 11; on target 4 and 5.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

J. Busby→

3.57

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “Coventry to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Sheffield Utd, 1.42 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win38.9%

Draw26.6%

Coventry to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time33.2%

Level at half-time42.9%

Coventry lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead66.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 12
Coventry: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 6Actual: 7
Coventry: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.45

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.36

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.