Championship · England · Regular Season - 34

Hull City–Derby

4–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 24 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Hull CityC. Elder (own goal)
17'DerbyC. Forsyth
39'Hull CityO. McBurnie (assist: J. Gelhardt)
42'DerbyS. Szmodics
75'Hull CityJ. Egan (assist: O. McBurnie)
84'Hull CityL. Koumas (assist: K. Joseph)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Derby
9	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
277	Passes	292
161	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.38 · Derby 1.21. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Hull City 9 · Derby 18; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

A. Herczeg→

3.92

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “Derby to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Hull City, 1.21 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,050 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win41.4%

Draw28.0%

Derby to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Hull City lead at half-time32.9%

Level at half-time43.3%

Derby lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Derby ahead67.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2050 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 9Actual: 19
Derby: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Hull City: at least 5Actual: 7
Derby: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.38

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score1.21

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.7%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.