Championship · England · Regular Season - 34

West Brom–Charlton

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 24 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'West BromG. Campbell (assist: A. Mowatt)
70'CharltonL. Dykes (assist: K. Ramsay)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Charlton
18	Shots	3
2	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	0
6	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
480	Passes	340
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.44 · Charlton 0.92. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots West Brom 18 · Charlton 3; on target 2 and 2.
West Brom kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Allison→

3.98

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for West Brom, 0.85 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — West Brom win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,050 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win50.7%

Draw28.5%

Charlton to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

West Brom lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time45.8%

Charlton lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2050 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 8Actual: 12
Charlton: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

West Brom: at least 5
Charlton: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.44

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score0.92

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–013.9%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.