Championship · England · Regular Season - 33

Sheffield Utd–Sheffield Wednesday

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Sheffield UtdP. Bamford (assist: G. Hamer)
19'Sheffield UtdH. Burrows (assist: Sydie Peck)
49'Sheffield UtdK. Phillips · red card
52'Sheffield WednesdayC. McNeill (assist: T. Adaramola)
90'Sheffield WednesdayG. Otegbayo · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Sheffield Wednesday
10	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	6
4	Offsides	5
60%	Possession	40%
349	Passes	222
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 2.22 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.69. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sheffield Utd 10 · Sheffield Wednesday 6; on target 4 and 2.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

J. Smith→

4.11

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.2%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.78 for Sheffield Utd, 0.62 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 95.3% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win83.2%

Draw12.1%

Sheffield Wednesday to win4.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	7

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time54.5%

Level at half-time37.9%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead45.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2049 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 9Actual: 11
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 7Actual: 2
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score2.22

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.69

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.3%3–012.5%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.