Championship · England · Regular Season - 33

Watford–Derby

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'WatfordL. Kjerrumgaard
90'WatfordM. Doumbia (assist: M. Bola)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Watford		Derby
18	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
359	Passes	424
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Watford 1.31 · Derby 1.05. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Watford 18 · Derby 5; on target 8 and 1.
Derby kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Webb→

3.16

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.2%: “Watford to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Watford, 1.05 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — Watford win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,043 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Watford to win46.2%

Draw28.1%

Derby to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Watford lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time44.6%

Derby lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Watford ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Derby ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2043 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Watford: at least 9Actual: 13
Derby: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Watford: at least 5Actual: 2
Derby: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Watford score1.31

Attack: Watford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score1.05

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Watford's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–011.0%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.