Championship · England · Regular Season - 33

Stoke City–Leicester

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Stoke CityB. Wilmot (assist: A. Cresswell)
52'LeicesterD. Mukasa (assist: J. Monga)
76'LeicesterHarry Winks (assist: D. Mukasa)
89'Stoke CityB. Wilmot (assist: L. Cisse)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stoke City		Leicester
11	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	4
4	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
320	Passes	401
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stoke City 1.37 · Leicester 1.11. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Stoke City 11 · Leicester 15; on target 3 and 5.
Leicester kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

G. Ward→

3.71

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Stoke City to win”. Second comes “Leicester to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Stoke City, 1.11 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,039 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stoke City to win40.8%

Draw29.2%

Leicester to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Stoke City lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time43.0%

Leicester lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Stoke City ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2039 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stoke City: at least 10Actual: 5
Leicester: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Stoke City: at least 5Actual: 7
Leicester: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stoke City score1.37

Attack: Stoke City score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leicester concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score1.11

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.7%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.