Championship · England · Regular Season - 33

West Brom–Coventry

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'CoventryE. Mason-Clark (assist: M. van Ewijk)
32'CoventryJ. Rudoni (assist: B. Thomas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Coventry
11	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
518	Passes	434
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.21 · Coventry 1.38. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots West Brom 11 · Coventry 10; on target 1 and 3.
West Brom kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Linington→

4.15

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for West Brom, 1.57 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (X2 — draw or Coventry win).
These values were computed from 2,039 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win26.2%

Draw27.0%

Coventry to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,543 of 3,253 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — West Brom win or draw53.1%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Coventry win73.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

West Brom lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time43.0%

Coventry lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2039 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 9Actual: 10
Coventry: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 3
Coventry: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.21

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.38

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.3%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2039 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 170 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.