Championship · England · Regular Season - 32

QPR–Blackburn

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'BlackburnM. Jorgensen (assist: R. Morishita)
35'QPRK. Saito (assist: I. Hayden)
40'BlackburnM. Jorgensen (assist: S. Tronstad)
50'BlackburnR. Morishita (assist: S. Tronstad)

Match statistics

Match statistics
QPR		Blackburn
21	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
497	Passes	372
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: QPR 1.31 · Blackburn 1.00. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots QPR 21 · Blackburn 7; on target 4 and 4.
QPR kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Martin→

4.42

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “QPR to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for QPR, 1.02 for Blackburn.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — QPR win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,030 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

QPR to win43.1%

Draw29.6%

Blackburn to win27.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

QPR lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time45.0%

Blackburn lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — QPR ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Blackburn ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2030 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

QPR: at least 10Actual: 12
Blackburn: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

QPR: at least 5Actual: 8
Blackburn: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals QPR score1.31

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackburn score1.00

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–012.0%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.