Championship · England · Regular Season - 31

Birmingham–Leicester

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 15:01
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'BirminghamI. Osman
21'LeicesterA. Fatawu
32'LeicesterB. De Cordova-Reid · red card
67'BirminghamJ. Stansfield (assist: M. Ducksch)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Birmingham		Leicester
21	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
577	Passes	224
495	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Birmingham 1.77 · Leicester 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Birmingham 21 · Leicester 7; on target 6 and 2.
Birmingham kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

J. Busby→

3.60

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Birmingham, 0.96 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Birmingham win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,018 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Birmingham to win56.2%

Draw25.0%

Leicester to win18.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Birmingham lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Leicester lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Birmingham ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2018 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Birmingham: at least 10Actual: 11
Leicester: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Birmingham: at least 5Actual: 10
Leicester: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Birmingham score1.77

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score0.95

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–010.9%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.