Championship · England · Regular Season - 19

Blackburn–Sheffield Wednesday

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'BlackburnE. Cashin (assist: R. Morishita)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Blackburn		Sheffield Wednesday
9	Shots	2
6	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
392	Passes	480
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Blackburn 1.72 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.84. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Blackburn 9 · Sheffield Wednesday 2; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

D. Whitestone→

3.26

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.9%: “Blackburn to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Blackburn, 0.68 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 90.9% (1X — Blackburn win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,011 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Blackburn to win71.9%

Draw18.9%

Sheffield Wednesday to win9.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Blackburn lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time44.8%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Blackburn ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2011 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Blackburn: at least 9Actual: 13
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Blackburn: at least 5Actual: 8
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Blackburn score1.72

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.84

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.2%1–012.1%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.