Championship · England · Regular Season - 30

Oxford United–Birmingham

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'BirminghamM. Peart-Harris (own goal)
66'BirminghamM. Ducksch (assist: Carlos Vicente)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Birmingham
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	4
39%	Possession	61%
341	Passes	529
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.13 · Birmingham 1.32. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Oxford United 10 · Birmingham 11; on target 4 and 2.
Birmingham kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Martin→

4.43

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Oxford United, 1.48 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (X2 — draw or Birmingham win).
These values were computed from 2,003 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win25.5%

Draw28.0%

Birmingham to win46.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Oxford United lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time42.1%

Birmingham lead at half-time22.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level77.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2003 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 9Actual: 7
Birmingham: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 4
Birmingham: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.13

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.32

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–111.0%1–210.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.