Championship · England · Regular Season - 30

Sheffield Wednesday–Wrexham

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'WrexhamS. Smith

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Wrexham
5	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
268	Passes	588
170	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.17 · Wrexham 1.50. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 5 · Wrexham 12; on target 2 and 4.
Wrexham kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

D. Webb→

3.20

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Wrexham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.90 for Wrexham.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (X2 — draw or Wrexham win).
These values were computed from 2,000 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win14.9%

Draw23.0%

Wrexham to win62.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday win or draw37.9%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or Wrexham win85.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time43.9%

Wrexham lead at half-time34.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level65.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Wrexham ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2000 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 13
Wrexham: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 3
Wrexham: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.17

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wrexham score1.50

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.8%1–111.7%0–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2000 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 29 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.