Championship · England · Regular Season - 28

Wrexham–Leicester

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'WrexhamL. O'Brien
90'LeicesterJannik Vestergaard (assist: Caleb Okoli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wrexham		Leicester
16	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
419	Passes	478
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wrexham 1.57 · Leicester 1.15. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Wrexham 16 · Leicester 5; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

Matt Donohue, England→

3.64

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Wrexham to win”. Second comes “Leicester to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Wrexham, 1.20 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,983 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wrexham to win43.1%

Draw27.6%

Leicester to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wrexham win or draw70.7%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Leicester win56.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Wrexham lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time39.3%

Leicester lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Wrexham ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1983 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wrexham: at least 9Actual: 12
Leicester: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Wrexham: at least 4Actual: 3
Leicester: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wrexham score1.57

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score1.15

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1983 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 27 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.