Championship · England · Regular Season - 27

Wrexham–Norwich

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'NorwichA. Ben Slimane (assist: A. Ahmed)
24'WrexhamS. Smith (assist: M. Cleworth)
59'NorwichJ. Makama (assist: K. McLean)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wrexham		Norwich
17	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
500	Passes	409
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wrexham 1.69 · Norwich 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Wrexham 17 · Norwich 7; on target 3 and 3.
Wrexham kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Will Finnie, England→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Wrexham to win”. Second comes “Norwich to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Wrexham, 1.20 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,967 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wrexham to win43.8%

Draw27.4%

Norwich to win28.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Wrexham lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time42.0%

Norwich lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Wrexham ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1967 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wrexham: at least 9Actual: 8
Norwich: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Wrexham: at least 4Actual: 7
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wrexham score1.69

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.14

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.0%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.