← Fixtures
Championship · England · Regular Season - 27
Sheffield Wednesday–
Portsmouth
0–1
HT 0–0
- Kick-off
- Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 15:00
- Status
- Match Finished
- Venue
- Hillsborough, Sheffield
What the model said, and what happened
Prediction correct
This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record
Goals and red cards
- 65'PortsmouthA. Segecic
Match statistics
| Sheffield Wednesday | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 7 | Shots inside the box | 10 |
| 2 | Goalkeeper saves | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 47% | Possession | 53% |
| 344 | Passes | 394 |
| 259 | Accurate passes | 311 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
What we expected, and what happened
- Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.37 · Portsmouth 1.24. On the pitch: 0-1.
- Shots Sheffield Wednesday 7 · Portsmouth 12; on target 1 and 3.
Referee
John Busby, England→4.57
yellows per match
0.29
reds per match
7
matches of data
7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
Model prediction
Why this prediction?
- The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.5%: “Portsmouth to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
- Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.53 for Portsmouth.
- The highest double chance value is 78.1% (X2 — draw or Portsmouth win).
- These values were computed from 1,967 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Sheffield Wednesday to win21.9%
Draw27.6%
Portsmouth to win50.5%
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →
Both teams to score50.8%
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Sheffield Wednesday win or draw49.5%
12 — any result other than a draw72.4%
X2 — draw or Portsmouth win78.1%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).
First half
Actual: 0–0Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time28.7%
Level at half-time44.1%
Portsmouth lead at half-time27.2%
First-half double chance
1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level72.8%
12 — not level at half-time55.9%
X2 — level or Portsmouth ahead71.3%
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1967 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Expected fouls and corners
Fouls
- Sheffield Wednesday
- at least 10Actual: 15
- Portsmouth
- at least 10Actual: 10
Corners
- Sheffield Wednesday
- at least 5Actual: 7
- Portsmouth
- at least 4Actual: 6
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
Goals market
The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.
The model gives a probability below the baseline (47.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.37
Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Portsmouth's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Portsmouth score1.24
Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–114.0%0–112.2%1–210.2%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 1967 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 70 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.