Championship · England · Regular Season - 27

Preston–Derby

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'DerbyP. Agyemang (assist: B. Brereton)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Derby
13	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	10
0	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
364	Passes	338
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.35 · Derby 1.01. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Preston 13 · Derby 18; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

Farai Hallam, England→

3.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Preston, 1.01 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,967 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win41.6%

Draw30.2%

Derby to win28.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Preston lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time45.3%

Derby lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Derby ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1967 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 9Actual: 7
Derby: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 5
Derby: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.35

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score1.01

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.2%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.