Championship · England · Regular Season - 27

Coventry–Leicester

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LeicesterJ. James (assist: B. De Cordova-Reid)
47'CoventryE. Simms (assist: J. Rudoni)
85'CoventryH. Wright

Match statistics

Match statistics
Coventry		Leicester
19	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
401	Passes	397
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Coventry 2.05 · Leicester 0.90. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Coventry 19 · Leicester 14; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Lewis Smith, England→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.3%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Coventry, 1.01 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Coventry win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,964 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Coventry to win60.3%

Draw22.6%

Leicester to win17.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Coventry lead at half-time55.7%

Level at half-time33.8%

Leicester lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Coventry ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time66.2%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead44.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1964 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Coventry: at least 9Actual: 8
Leicester: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Coventry: at least 5Actual: 5
Leicester: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Coventry score2.05

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score0.90

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.