Championship · England · Regular Season - 27

West Brom–Middlesbrough

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 16 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'MiddlesbroughC. Taylor (own goal)
58'MiddlesbroughS. Silvera (assist: M. Whittaker)
75'West BromI. Price (assist: J. Wallace)
80'West BromJ. Wallace
90'MiddlesbroughD. Burgzorg (assist: S. Silvera)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Middlesbrough
12	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	5
43%	Possession	57%
407	Passes	562
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.32 · Middlesbrough 1.08. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots West Brom 12 · Middlesbrough 9; on target 6 and 5.
Middlesbrough kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Josh Smith, England→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “Middlesbrough to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for West Brom, 1.22 for Middlesbrough.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,963 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win38.2%

Draw28.7%

Middlesbrough to win33.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

West Brom lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time44.0%

Middlesbrough lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Middlesbrough ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1963 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 10Actual: 11
Middlesbrough: at least 9Actual: 4

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 4
Middlesbrough: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.32

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.08

Attack: Middlesbrough score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.5%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.