Championship · England · Regular Season - 26

Norwich–Stoke City

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'Stoke CityS. Gallagher (assist: S. Thomas)
82'Stoke CityS. Thomas (assist: M. Manhoef)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Stoke City
7	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	6
52%	Possession	48%
429	Passes	393
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.54 · Stoke City 1.06. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Norwich 7 · Stoke City 14; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

Farai Hallam, England→

3.29

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Norwich, 1.08 for Stoke City.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Norwich win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,956 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win47.9%

Draw27.2%

Stoke City to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Norwich win or draw75.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Stoke City win52.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Norwich lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time44.3%

Stoke City lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Stoke City ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1956 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 9Actual: 9
Stoke City: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Norwich: at least 5Actual: 3
Stoke City: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.54

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stoke City score1.06

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.4%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1956 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 163 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.