Championship · England · Regular Season - 26

QPR–Sheffield Wednesday

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'QPRR. Burrell (assist: N. Madsen)
81'QPRR. Kolli (assist: R. Kone)
88'QPRR. Kolli (assist: K. Morgan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
QPR		Sheffield Wednesday
13	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
423	Passes	462
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: QPR 1.76 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.93. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots QPR 13 · Sheffield Wednesday 4; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

Sam Allison, England→

3.29

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.2%: “QPR to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for QPR, 0.70 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 90.4% (1X — QPR win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,954 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

QPR to win71.2%

Draw19.2%

Sheffield Wednesday to win9.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

QPR lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time40.4%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — QPR ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1954 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

QPR: at least 9Actual: 9
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

QPR: at least 5Actual: 5
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals QPR score1.76

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.93

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–011.8%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.