Championship · England · Regular Season - 25

Sheffield Utd–Leicester

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 1 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'Sheffield UtdJ. Tanganga (assist: S. McCallum)
52'Sheffield UtdT. Cannon (assist: A. Brooks)
88'Sheffield UtdC. O'Hare (assist: F. Seriki)
90'LeicesterJ. James (assist: J. Ayew)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Leicester
13	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	5
56%	Possession	44%
454	Passes	349
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.81 · Leicester 0.98. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sheffield Utd 13 · Leicester 6; on target 5 and 1.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Farai Hallam, England→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Sheffield Utd, 1.03 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,953 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win55.2%

Draw24.7%

Leicester to win20.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time54.1%

Level at half-time35.6%

Leicester lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead45.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1953 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 13
Leicester: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 6Actual: 7
Leicester: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.81

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score0.98

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.9%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.