Championship · England · Regular Season - 25

Charlton–Coventry

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 1 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Valley, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'CoventryE. Simms (assist: M. van Ewijk)
69'CharltonJ. Rankin-Costello

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charlton		Coventry
15	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	16
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
330	Passes	400
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charlton 1.03 · Coventry 1.56. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Charlton 15 · Coventry 20; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

Josh Smith, England→

3.18

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Charlton, 1.56 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (X2 — draw or Coventry win).
These values were computed from 1,943 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charlton to win25.5%

Draw27.1%

Coventry to win47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Charlton lead at half-time14.9%

Level at half-time41.8%

Coventry lead at half-time43.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Charlton ahead or level56.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead85.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1943 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charlton: at least 11Actual: 10
Coventry: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Charlton: at least 4Actual: 9
Coventry: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charlton score1.03

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.56

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.3%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.