Championship · England · Regular Season - 25

Preston–Sheffield Wednesday

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 1 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'PrestonA. McCann (assist: J. Lewis)
61'PrestonMilutin Osmajić (assist: B. Whiteman)
85'PrestonL. Dobbin (assist: A. McCann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Sheffield Wednesday
12	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	7
4	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
386	Passes	454
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.65 · Sheffield Wednesday 0.99. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Preston 12 · Sheffield Wednesday 6; on target 7 and 1.

Referee

Gavin Ward, England→

2.44

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Preston, 0.77 for Sheffield Wednesday.
The highest double chance value is 86.3% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,943 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win63.1%

Draw23.3%

Sheffield Wednesday to win13.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Preston lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time41.7%

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Sheffield Wednesday ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1943 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 10Actual: 10
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 4
Sheffield Wednesday: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.65

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score0.99

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.9%2–012.8%1–111.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.