Championship · England · Regular Season - 24

Sheffield Wednesday–Blackburn

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 29 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Blackburn
5	Shots	14
0	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
401	Passes	494
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.18 · Blackburn 1.41. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 5 · Blackburn 14; on target 0 and 2.
Blackburn kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Oliver Langford, England→

4.29

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.5%: “Blackburn to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.62 for Blackburn.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or Blackburn win).
These values were computed from 1,931 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win19.0%

Draw26.4%

Blackburn to win54.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time45.5%

Blackburn lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Blackburn ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1931 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 12
Blackburn: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 2
Blackburn: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.18

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackburn score1.41

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%0–112.6%0–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.