Championship · England · Regular Season - 24

West Brom–QPR

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 29 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'West BromG. Campbell (assist: C. Styles)
35'QPRO. Diakité (own goal)
55'West BromN. Phillips (assist: M. Johnston)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		QPR
12	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
417	Passes	504
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.46 · QPR 1.00. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots West Brom 12 · QPR 3; on target 4 and 0.
QPR kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Lewis Smith, England→

3.90

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.1%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for West Brom, 1.02 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — West Brom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,931 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win53.1%

Draw25.8%

QPR to win21.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

West Brom lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time41.6%

QPR lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or QPR ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1931 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 9Actual: 6
QPR: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 9
QPR: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.46

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score1.00

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.7%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.