Championship · England · Regular Season - 24

Millwall–Bristol City

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 29 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Den, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'MillwallC. Neghli
49'Bristol CityA. Randell (assist: R. McCrorie)
81'MillwallM. Langstaff

Match statistics

Match statistics
Millwall		Bristol City
8	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	8
0	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
346	Passes	463
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Millwall 1.34 · Bristol City 1.14. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Millwall 8 · Bristol City 16; on target 2 and 3.
Bristol City kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

David Webb, England→

2.22

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Millwall to win”. Second comes “Bristol City to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Millwall, 1.16 for Bristol City.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,931 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Millwall to win39.5%

Draw29.1%

Bristol City to win31.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Millwall lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time45.5%

Bristol City lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Millwall ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Bristol City ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1931 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Millwall: at least 11Actual: 15
Bristol City: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Millwall: at least 4Actual: 1
Bristol City: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Millwall score1.34

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bristol City score1.14

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.2%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.