Championship · England · Regular Season - 24

Coventry–Ipswich

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 29 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'IpswichJ. Clarke (assist: M. Núñez)
83'IpswichW. Burns (assist: M. Núñez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Coventry		Ipswich
10	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	15
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
257	Passes	385
175	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Coventry 1.46 · Ipswich 1.23. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Coventry 10 · Ipswich 18; on target 3 and 7.
Ipswich kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Anthony Backhouse, England→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “Ipswich to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Coventry, 1.26 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,930 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Coventry to win42.3%

Draw27.2%

Ipswich to win30.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Coventry lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time41.7%

Ipswich lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Coventry ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1930 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Coventry: at least 10Actual: 12
Ipswich: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Coventry: at least 5Actual: 3
Ipswich: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Coventry score1.46

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.46 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ipswich score1.23

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.9%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.