Championship · England · Regular Season - 23

Wrexham–Sheffield Utd

5–3

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Friday, 26 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Sheffield UtdP. Bamford (assist: F. Seriki)
9'WrexhamTyler Bindon (own goal)
15'Sheffield UtdP. Bamford (assist: F. Seriki)
24'Sheffield UtdC. O'Hare
28'WrexhamK. Moore (assist: G. Thomason)
51'WrexhamR. Longman (assist: G. Thomason)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wrexham		Sheffield Utd
18	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
5	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
495	Passes	422
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wrexham 1.21 · Sheffield Utd 1.38. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots Wrexham 18 · Sheffield Utd 13; on target 8 and 7.

Referee

Andrew Kitchen, England→

3.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “Wrexham to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Wrexham, 1.45 for Sheffield Utd.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,929 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wrexham to win30.5%

Draw27.9%

Sheffield Utd to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

76'WrexhamK. Moore (assist: N. Broadhead)

81'WrexhamJ. Windass (penalty)

7	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wrexham win or draw58.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Sheffield Utd win69.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–3

Wrexham lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time46.1%

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Wrexham ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Sheffield Utd ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1929 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wrexham: at least 9Actual: 7
Sheffield Utd: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Wrexham: at least 4Actual: 7
Sheffield Utd: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wrexham score1.21

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.38

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.7%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1929 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.