Championship · England · Regular Season - 23

West Brom–Bristol City

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 26 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Bristol CityA. Mehmeti (assist: Neto Borges)
22'Bristol CityR. McCrorie (assist: S. Twine)
85'West BromO. Diakité (assist: M. Johnston)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Bristol City
16	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
593	Passes	321
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.47 · Bristol City 1.03. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots West Brom 16 · Bristol City 6; on target 4 and 3.
West Brom kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Will Finnie, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for West Brom, 1.08 for Bristol City.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — West Brom win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,920 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win46.3%

Draw27.7%

Bristol City to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

West Brom lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time44.7%

Bristol City lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Bristol City ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1920 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 9Actual: 14
Bristol City: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

West Brom: at least 4Actual: 9
Bristol City: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.47

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bristol City score1.03

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.5%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.