Championship · England · Regular Season - 21

Birmingham–Charlton

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'BirminghamC. Klarer (assist: T. Doyle)
67'CharltonT. Campbell

Match statistics

Match statistics
Birmingham		Charlton
24	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
479	Passes	298
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Birmingham 1.74 · Charlton 0.81. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Birmingham 24 · Charlton 7; on target 5 and 1.
Birmingham kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Andrew Kitchen, England→

2.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Birmingham, 0.78 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (1X — Birmingham win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,898 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Birmingham to win62.3%

Draw23.6%

Charlton to win14.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Birmingham lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time40.4%

Charlton lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Birmingham ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1898 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Birmingham: at least 9Actual: 9
Charlton: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Birmingham: at least 5Actual: 10
Charlton: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Birmingham score1.74

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score0.81

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.9%2–012.7%1–112.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.