Championship · England · Regular Season - 20

QPR–Birmingham

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 9 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'QPRJ. Dunne (assist: K. Saito)
90'BirminghamP. Roberts (assist: D. Gray)
90'QPRK. Morgan (assist: J. Varane)

Match statistics

Match statistics
QPR		Birmingham
16	Shots	3
3	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
256	Passes	450
189	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: QPR 1.17 · Birmingham 1.30. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots QPR 16 · Birmingham 3; on target 3 and 1.
Birmingham kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

James Bell, England→

4.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “QPR to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for QPR, 1.39 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

QPR to win33.4%

Draw28.0%

Birmingham to win38.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

QPR lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time41.6%

Birmingham lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — QPR ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1889 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

QPR: at least 10Actual: 11
Birmingham: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

QPR: at least 5Actual: 6
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals QPR score1.17

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.30

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.4%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.