Championship · England · Regular Season - 20

Swansea–Portsmouth

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 9 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'SwanseaL. Cullen (assist: M. Yalcouyé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Portsmouth
15	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
377	Passes	368
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.41 · Portsmouth 1.09. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Swansea 15 · Portsmouth 10; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

Tom Reeves, England→

2.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Swansea, 1.04 for Portsmouth.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,882 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win48.5%

Draw27.4%

Portsmouth to win24.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Swansea lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time42.9%

Portsmouth lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Portsmouth ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1882 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 9Actual: 6
Portsmouth: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 5
Portsmouth: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.41

Attack: Swansea score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Portsmouth's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Portsmouth score1.09

Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.9%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.