Championship · England · Regular Season - 19

Bristol City–Millwall

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'MillwallM. Ivanovic (assist: R. Bangura-Williams)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Millwall
13	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
477	Passes	238
360	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.39 · Millwall 1.09. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bristol City 13 · Millwall 12; on target 3 and 6.
Bristol City kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Edward Duckworth, England→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Bristol City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Bristol City, 1.04 for Millwall.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Bristol City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,875 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win46.5%

Draw28.1%

Millwall to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bristol City lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time44.5%

Millwall lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Millwall ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1875 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 8Actual: 7
Millwall: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Bristol City: at least 5Actual: 8
Millwall: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.39

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Millwall score1.09

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–011.1%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.