Championship · England · Regular Season - 19

Derby–Leicester

1–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'LeicesterB. De Cordova-Reid (assist: J. James)
15'LeicesterO. Skipp
31'LeicesterJ. James (assist: Luke Thomas)
63'DerbyS. Langås (assist: J. Ward)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Leicester
18	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
432	Passes	274
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.26 · Leicester 1.17. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Derby 18 · Leicester 4; on target 5 and 4.
Derby kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Josh Smith, England→

2.71

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.1%: “Derby to win”. Second comes “Leicester to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Derby, 1.18 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,873 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win35.1%

Draw30.0%

Leicester to win34.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Derby lead at half-time43.4%

Level at half-time42.1%

Leicester lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead56.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1873 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 11Actual: 11
Leicester: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Derby: at least 5Actual: 6
Leicester: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.26

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score1.17

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.3%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.