Championship · England · Regular Season - 6

Blackburn–Ipswich

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 2 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen (assist: George Pratt)
90'IpswichS. W. Egeli (assist: J. Clarke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Blackburn		Ipswich
14	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
314	Passes	387
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Blackburn 1.08 · Ipswich 1.44. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Blackburn 14 · Ipswich 11; on target 3 and 2.
Ipswich kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Oliver Langford, England→

4.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Blackburn, 1.55 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (X2 — draw or Ipswich win).
These values were computed from 1,871 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Blackburn to win24.7%

Draw27.2%

Ipswich to win48.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Blackburn lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time46.3%

Ipswich lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Blackburn ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1871 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Blackburn: at least 12Actual: 12
Ipswich: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Blackburn: at least 4Actual: 9
Ipswich: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Blackburn score1.08

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score1.44

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–110.5%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.