Championship · England · Regular Season - 18

Stoke City–Hull City

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Stoke CityS. Thomas
48'Hull CityS. Ajayi (assist: M. Belloumi)
90'Hull CityJ. Gelhardt (assist: M. Belloumi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stoke City		Hull City
12	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	8
6	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
394	Passes	310
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stoke City 1.53 · Hull City 1.08. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Stoke City 12 · Hull City 11; on target 7 and 6.
Stoke City kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Josh Smith, England→

2.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Stoke City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Stoke City, 0.98 for Hull City.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Stoke City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,860 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stoke City to win55.8%

Draw24.9%

Hull City to win19.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Stoke City lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time44.0%

Hull City lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Stoke City ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Hull City ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1860 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stoke City: at least 10Actual: 12
Hull City: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

Stoke City: at least 5Actual: 7
Hull City: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stoke City score1.53

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hull City score1.08

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.