Championship · England · Regular Season - 18

Leicester–Sheffield Utd

2–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Sheffield UtdT. Cannon (assist: C. O'Hare)
4'Sheffield UtdC. O'Hare
32'Sheffield UtdSydie Peck
53'LeicesterS. Mavididi (assist: A. Fatawu)
83'LeicesterJ. James (assist: B. Soumare)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leicester		Sheffield Utd
15	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	9
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
580	Passes	246
489	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leicester 1.29 · Sheffield Utd 1.21. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Leicester 15 · Sheffield Utd 13; on target 3 and 3.
Leicester kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Anthony Backhouse, England→

4.29

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Leicester to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Utd to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Leicester, 1.23 for Sheffield Utd.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,860 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leicester to win40.2%

Draw28.1%

Sheffield Utd to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Leicester lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time46.0%

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Leicester ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Sheffield Utd ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1860 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leicester: at least 10Actual: 12
Sheffield Utd: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Leicester: at least 5Actual: 4
Sheffield Utd: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leicester score1.29

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.21

Attack: Sheffield Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.5%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.