Championship · England · Regular Season - 17

Southampton–Leicester

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 25 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'SouthamptonT. Harwood-Bellis (assist: R. Manning)
23'SouthamptonF. Azaz (assist: Léo Scienza)
33'LeicesterO. Aluko · red card
42'SouthamptonT. Harwood-Bellis (assist: R. Manning)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Southampton		Leicester
18	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
547	Passes	371
504	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Southampton 1.70 · Leicester 1.15. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Southampton 18 · Leicester 7; on target 8 and 2.
Southampton kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Gavin Ward, England→

2.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Southampton, 1.08 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Southampton win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Southampton to win51.0%

Draw26.0%

Leicester to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 3–0

Southampton lead at half-time40.6%

Level at half-time41.2%

Leicester lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Southampton ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead59.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1853 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Southampton: at least 10Actual: 8
Leicester: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Southampton: at least 5Actual: 11
Leicester: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Southampton score1.70

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score1.15

Attack: Leicester score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.