Championship · England · Regular Season - 17

Swansea–Derby

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 25 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'DerbyJ. Ward (assist: C. Elder)
53'DerbyL. Salvesen
90'SwanseaE. Galbraith

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Derby
9	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
73%	Possession	27%
678	Passes	241
585	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.25 · Derby 1.04. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Swansea 9 · Derby 13; on target 4 and 5.
Swansea kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Andrew Kitchen, England→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Swansea, 0.93 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win42.8%

Draw30.7%

Derby to win26.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Swansea lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time46.9%

Derby lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Derby ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1847 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 8Actual: 10
Derby: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 4
Derby: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.25

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score1.04

Attack: Derby score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.4%0–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.