Championship · England · Regular Season - 16

Sheffield Wednesday–Sheffield Utd

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Sheffield UtdT. Campbell (assist: C. O'Hare)
48'Sheffield UtdT. Campbell (assist: Sydie Peck)
90'Sheffield UtdT. Cannon

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Sheffield Utd
5	Shots	11
0	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
367	Passes	256
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.23 · Sheffield Utd 1.37. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 5 · Sheffield Utd 11; on target 0 and 7.
Sheffield Wednesday kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

David Webb, England→

2.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.59 for Sheffield Utd.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (X2 — draw or Sheffield Utd win).
These values were computed from 1,846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win24.6%

Draw26.8%

Sheffield Utd to win48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time44.9%

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time35.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level64.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Sheffield Utd ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 13
Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 4
Sheffield Utd: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.23

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.37

Attack: Sheffield Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.4%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.