Championship · England · Regular Season - 16

Bristol City–Swansea

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Bristol CityR. Dickie (assist: A. Mehmeti)
31'Bristol CityE. Riis (assist: A. Mehmeti)
82'Bristol CityY. Hirakawa (assist: A. Mehmeti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Swansea
15	Shots	17
8	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	4
43%	Possession	57%
422	Passes	549
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.44 · Swansea 1.00. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Bristol City 15 · Swansea 17; on target 8 and 5.
Swansea kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Josh Smith, England→

2.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Bristol City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Bristol City, 1.03 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Bristol City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,836 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win48.6%

Draw27.4%

Swansea to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bristol City lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time44.1%

Swansea lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 10Actual: 10
Swansea: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Bristol City: at least 5Actual: 5
Swansea: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.44

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.00

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.9%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.