Championship · England · Regular Season - 15

Stoke City–Coventry

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

86'CoventryE. Mason-Clark

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stoke City		Coventry
10	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
6	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
313	Passes	352
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stoke City 1.15 · Coventry 1.54. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Stoke City 10 · Coventry 17; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

John Busby, England→

5.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “Stoke City to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Stoke City, 1.51 for Coventry.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,827 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stoke City to win31.5%

Draw27.1%

Coventry to win41.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stoke City lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time43.9%

Coventry lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Stoke City ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Coventry ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1827 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stoke City: at least 10Actual: 9
Coventry: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Stoke City: at least 5Actual: 3
Coventry: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stoke City score1.15

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Coventry score1.54

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.8%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.