Championship · England · Regular Season - 15

Sheffield Utd–QPR

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		QPR
20	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
14	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
404	Passes	268
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.47 · QPR 0.97. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sheffield Utd 20 · QPR 13; on target 3 and 4.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Lewis Smith, England→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Sheffield Utd, 1.14 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,827 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win45.6%

Draw27.4%

QPR to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw73.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or QPR win54.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time41.8%

QPR lead at half-time13.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level86.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or QPR ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1827 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 6
QPR: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 6Actual: 14
QPR: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.47

Attack: Sheffield Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score0.97

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.1%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1827 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 106 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.